Gallup Checks out the '08 field
November 14, 2006 09:31 AM
Here's the result of a poll of Republicans, and self-identified Republican leaners,
My take is that Republican leaners are not Republican primary voters, and that Gallup has the whole premise of the poll wrong. Giuliani, McCain and Rice are all unacceptable to conservatives, and will not be nominated. There is an intense dislike (if not outright hatred) of John McCain among Republicans I know. McCain is the problem--not the solution. Guilini is at least funny and solid on defense, but is way too liberal on social issues. He's most likely to be someone's VP pick. Condoleezza Rice is wonderful on national security, but is not pro-life. The Republican Party will not--and should not--nominate anyone who is not pro-life. The big battle over the next year will be over the conservative base, as we see different candidates try to claim it. My guess at this point is that the nominee will either be Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney. Sam Brownback would be great too, if he can raise his profile.
As for the Democrats and Democrat leaners, no surprises there:
They'd be fools if they nominate John Kerry again, so naturally, he's our guy for the Dems. If they want to win, they'll nominate Evan Bayh. But they'll never nominate Evan Bayh.