Random OH-02 Political Observations, New Year's Eve
January 1, 2008 12:12 AM
So I was out tonight with a mostly Republican crowd (I know, big surprise). And I found my first convert: A Republican who is crossing party lines to vote in the Democratic primary for Steve Black. Her exact words to me: "He's basically a Republican." Uhhhh, no, he's not. And I know several Indian Hill-ites who are voting for him too. He lives there. They know him. Go to church with him, etc. So they like him. More than they ever liked Victoria Wulsin, who most of those types believe is kind of weird. And let's face it. She is. Weird.
But Steve Black... kind of an Indian Hill favorite son.
But not, I think, among the astute political crowd. Outside of the Magic Mountain, his name recognition is nil, and I think Wulsin will trounce him, even though people in Indian Hill think she's crazy. In the rest of the district, people at least know who she is. She's run before, and done well. Steve Black is not going to do well outside of Indian Hill. But he may do better than Wulsin does there, because smart, mostly wealthy people, don't like her. At all. But Black's I-Hill vote is NOT going to carry through the rest of the district, unless he raises millions of dollars (which he hasn't).
So that's my prediction. Black loses in the primary. And Wulsin, without a disaster in Iraq to campaign against, loses in the general.
So sorry, weak-kneed Republicans. Just because you know someone from the Indian Hill Presbyterian Episcopal Church, does not mean they have much credibility outside your sphere of influence. Shocking, I know. But the truth is Ohio 02 is a lot bigger than Indian Hill. Thank God.
Also: There is a whole sub-story here about how the Republican party is not the party of the elites, as is widely assumed. The Democrats are. Two Democratic candidates with old school Indian Hill names... And they're up against a Republican girl from Loveland. Any real reporters want to take on this story?